The 2026 Promise Ledger

8 promises with a target in 2026, each with the original statement, what evidence would count, and what is on record. Reference date 2026-12-31; last reviewed 2026-09-30.

Overdue does not mean missed: a status changes to missed only when someone records it. Unknown does not mean not delivered: it means no qualifying evidence is on record. The criteria are drawn only from what each source says, and the selection is every promise in the register with this target year, not a sample of the market.

2026 promise ledger
Robot	Original statement	Kind	Test criterion	Current evidence	Unknown	Status	Reviewed
4NE-1NEURA Robotics	“4NE1 Gen 3.5 is expected to be available end of 2026.” NEURA Robotics, 4NE-1 reservation page, 2026-01-05	availability	The source does not define available. Record what NEURA itself offers for the 4NE-1 Gen 3.5 at the end of 2026 and state which meaning was used. An open reservation, as on the source page, is recorded as a reservation, not as availability.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet.	What NEURA means by available: orderable, deliverable or shipped Whether end of 2026 is a deadline or an estimate Which variants and regions the statement covers	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
G1Unitree Robotics	“global humanoid robot shipments could reach 'tens of thousands' this year, with his company accounting for around 10,000 to 20,000 units” eWeek (citing Unitree CEO Wang Xingxing via 36Kr), 2026-02-19	delivery	Reported company-wide Unitree humanoid robot shipments for 2026, compared with the 10,000 to 20,000 range in the quote. The scope is the company, not the G1 alone. The quote is a CEO expectation (could reach), not a commitment.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet. 2 related records, not judged against the criterion 2026-04-01: Durham University says its Computer Science department has welcomed Alan, a Unitree G1 Edu robot; publication on 1 April 2026 is not a delivery date. source 2026-05-27: Fraunhofer IPA says it received a Unitree G1 EDU-4 with Dex3-1 hands in May 2025; the source gives a month, not a day. source	Whether units means shipments or production Which models are included Who reports the final count and on what date	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
IronXPeng	“mass production will begin by year-end” CnEVPost, 2026-09-08	production	Evidence from XPeng that mass production of Iron began by the end of 2026. Start of production is not delivery to external customers; the quote says only that production will begin.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet.	What XPeng means by mass production, and at what volume Whether production has begun at the date of review Whether any units go to customers outside XPeng	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
MenteeBot V3Mentee Robotics	“first on-site proof-of-concept deployments with customers expected in 2026” Mobileye press release, 2026-01-06	delivery	Dated evidence of a first proof-of-concept deployment with a customer, on the customer's site, during 2026. Commercial or serial delivery is not required by the source and is not tested.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet.	Which customers What the source counts as a proof of concept Whether expected in 2026 is a commitment	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
Neo1X Technologies	“NEO is now available for pre-order, with first orders shipping to consumer homes in 2026.” The Robot Report, 2025-10-30	delivery	Dated evidence that first NEO orders shipped to consumer homes during 2026. A pre-order or deposit does not count. Dispatch and receipt are recorded separately.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet.	Whether the source means dispatch or receipt when it says shipping Which market the first homes are in: the quote names none, the claim text and timeline say US How many units, and which variant	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
OptimusTesla, Inc.	“hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026” TechCrunch, 2024-07-23	production	The quote gives no quantity and does not define high, so no threshold is applied here. Record what is reported about Optimus production in 2026 and about supply to other companies, without a pass or fail line.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet. 1 related record, not judged against the criterion 2026-04-22: volume-estimate: No customer deliveries confirmed; Tesla states production lines are being installed at Fremont with full-scale manufacturing targeted for 2027. source	What high production means in units Whether for other companies means sold, delivered or only built for them Whether hopefully is a commitment or an aspiration	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
Persona Gen 1Persona AI, Inc.	“Prototype completion targeted for end of 2026” PR Newswire, HD Hyundai / Persona AI, 2025-05-07	prototype	Evidence from Persona AI or HD Hyundai that prototype humanoid welding robots were completed by the end of 2026. Delivery to HD Hyundai is not stated in the quote and is not tested; the same source places field testing and commercialization in 2027.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet. 1 related record, not judged against the criterion 2026-07-13: first-demo: Persona AI deployed a humanoid welding robot at its own Houston facility, sized to fit human welders' physical envelope in confined shipyard spaces; described as prototype/pre-commercial, with commercial testing targeted for 2027. source	What prototype completion means and how many prototypes Whether completed prototypes are handed to HD Hyundai Whether completion will be announced publicly	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30
Walker S2UBTech Robotics	“targeting an annual capacity of 5,000 industrial humanoid robots by 2026” UBTECH press release via PR Newswire, 2025-11-17	capacity	A UBTECH statement or independent evidence that annual capacity of 5,000 industrial humanoid robots was reached by 2026. Capacity is not units produced or delivered; those numbers are recorded separately and are not evidence for or against capacity.	No qualifying evidence recorded yet. 1 related record, not judged against the criterion 2025-11-17: volume-estimate: UBTech's own press release states mass production and delivery of the first batch began, naming automotive and logistics deployment partners (BYD, Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor, Geely Auto, FAW-Volkswagen Qingdao, Audi FAW, BAIC New Energy, Foxconn, SF Express) and orders exceeding 800 million yuan. No independent photo/serial/unboxing evidence of a specific named-customer unit was found, so this is recorded as claimed, not shipped. source	Whether by 2026 means during or by the end of 2026 Whether the capacity covers Walker S2 only or all industrial humanoids: the quote says the latter Units actually produced and delivered	open deadline 2026-12-31	2026-09-30